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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd