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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still